Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 106.899887 121.820513 138.495838 158.591093 182.252982 209.352708 242.915640
2026-02-08 84.699964 103.175723 125.546082 154.894413 192.778661 240.576702 306.316513
2026-02-15 71.023522 90.776973 116.133810 151.580734 200.675076 267.515989 367.600856
2026-02-22 65.572937 87.345074 116.746631 160.221172 224.382770 318.091475 470.165507
2026-03-01 59.342215 81.710608 113.182473 161.917710 237.771237 355.399163 560.202080
2026-03-08 54.483778 77.225169 110.397462 163.925431 251.347082 394.608027 661.109600
2026-03-15 49.951191 72.594761 106.677057 163.703442 260.925623 428.420405 759.664381
2026-03-22 48.062129 71.670237 108.376587 172.168395 285.992467 492.944688 930.682731
2026-03-29 46.086325 70.346008 109.198462 179.124549 309.318613 558.454215 1120.878963
2026-04-05 44.085217 68.740120 109.312942 184.744685 330.916110 624.594832 1330.906347
2026-04-12 41.619793 66.107886 107.373430 186.319912 344.849609 677.696931 1526.255493
2026-04-19 39.174568 63.273901 104.768701 186.262112 355.390163 725.449520 1722.797509
2026-04-26 36.276133 59.489164 100.250426 182.254038 357.722492 756.809695 1890.954736
2026-05-03 33.626584 55.929046 95.816155 177.899498 358.707465 785.504429 2062.753181
2026-05-10 31.317436 52.785693 91.851505 173.994850 360.037214 815.289548 2248.827797
2026-05-17 30.948734 53.139800 94.511193 184.185394 395.490487 940.134682 2788.462989
2026-05-24 29.646830 51.641320 93.427555 186.188390 411.749426 1017.964422 3205.756524
2026-05-31 28.490494 50.322149 92.566462 188.559585 429.342049 1104.087106 3696.646478
2026-06-07 27.160610 48.563244 90.652559 188.297366 440.130862 1173.088913 4156.966622
2026-06-14 26.900207 48.876061 93.023903 198.304448 480.149673 1343.776314 5153.243205
2026-06-21 26.465992 48.802516 94.567399 206.539819 517.010336 1516.283575 6283.924412
2026-06-28 25.907489 48.429336 95.425151 213.201121 550.774892 1689.672804 7558.159999
2026-07-05 25.000442 47.266472 94.441426 215.069367 570.658998 1819.757076 8704.917277